The NHS Transformation Unit is experienced in delivering services throughout the transformational change process. Within the F&A team we have extensive experience in large-scale analytical and financial modelling. Working with colleagues in the Organisational Strategy and Engagement (OSE) team we can model the impact of changes to the patient pathway from the view of key stakeholders including providers, commissioners and the patients.
With the NHS Long term Plan’s aim that all of England will be covered by integrated care systems (ICSs) by April 2021 the health and social care landscape will continue to evolve. Finance and data analytics will form a big part in developing solutions for the future. Organisations will need to ensure that they are not only providing value for money, but also providing excellent quality of care to all patients.
Pathway reconfiguration also requires much consideration for patients and communities, both in the present, and in the future. Through analytic and statistical modelling, we can model likely changes to your population and its needs and understand how pathway reconfigurations can affect them. One particular area is travel and access modelling which enables us to see how changing services will impact on your patients travel.
We offer leadership and support with the following services.
We have extensive experience sourcing, processing and presenting data for the purpose of comparative analysis. This provides valuable insight into the health and care needs of your population and can be used as evidence of a need to change or to highlight areas of best practice.
- Acute Activity and Spend: Robust analysis of activity and outcomes across secondary care. This can include looking at trends in admission numbers, length of stay and commissioner spend, with comparisons to local organisations or reliably selected peers.
- Performance Standards: Comparative analysis of organisational or regional achievement of NHS Constitution standards such as the 4-hour A&E standard, Referral to Treatment waiting times and Cancer waiting times.
- Population Health Needs: Sourcing and analysing appropriate data to provide information on the health needs of your population. This can cover topics such as the prevalence of different diseases and conditions, analysis of the key determinants of health outcomes such as smoking or obesity and socio-economic factors such as drug and alcohol use and employment across your population.
Effectively conveying key messages to different audiences is crucial to ensure health and care data is used to maximum effect. We are skilled in the creation of visually appealing and user-friendly methods for the visualisation and interrogation of complex information.
- Data visualisation: production of maps showing geographic variation in health and population outcomes, infographics using appropriate software, complex visualisations using R.
- Interactive tools: production of dashboards and visualisations in Power BI and Tableau.
Statistical Modelling & Analysis
We are experienced in performing robust statistical analysis of activity, clinical outcome and financial data.
- Forecasting activity: Through the development of forecasting models we can help you to predict future activity and demand for your healthcare services. This analysis can then be used to assist with workforce planning to ensure that the right number of staff are available to meet future demands.
- Patient Outcome Models: We can create statistical models to assist with predicting patient outcomes and achievement of performance metrics.
- Patient Access Models: We use a variety of Machine Learning methods to understand the key factors for patients’ choices in where they access acute care services.
Modelling and Simulation
We have significant experience in the creation of models and simulations to measure the impact of service redesign on activity and finance, travel and access and for different equality groups.
Determining the impact of service redesign: We are experienced in developing models to predict the future impact of service reconfigurations. We work closely with stakeholders to accurately define parameters including the scope of activity, demographic changes and efficiency projections, which we use to model the impact on activity, estates, workforce and finance across a defined system. We have experience in working on small scale, single service reconfigurations and on large scale transformation projects, involving changes to multiple services across numerous organisations.
Travel and Access Modelling: Travel and ease of access is important to patients and their families and to the NHS workforce. Transformation programmes sometimes involve reconfiguring the site or sites at which a service is provided, and a robust assessment of the positive and negative effects of any proposal on travel times and ease of access is very important. The TU has developed a machine learning model to accurately predict the movement of patients under different future service reconfiguration options. The model takes into account several factors known to influence patient choice including peak and off-peak travel times, patient age and local CCG ratings, and can be adapted in conjunction with local stakeholders to consider more parameters.
Equality Impact Analysis: Impact assessments are a key component of reconfiguration programmes and should be undertaken by all UK Government departments and agencies implementing change. Our colleagues in the Organisational Strategy and Engagement (OSE) can support you to complete EIAs.
We understand the complexities of healthcare finance and offer a wide range of financial modelling services including:
Financial gap analysis
We can provide an economy-wide assessment and related gap analysis of the financial challenge your locality is facing. We also have extensive experience of running sensitivity analyses to understand key influences of the financial challenge being encountered. This supports strategy development.
Review of Long Term Financial Models
Our team have been directly involved in overseeing the production and use of complex financial models and can support you to review existing models that have been produced. Our review would provide a full and detailed review and assurance of models provided with a set of recommendations of refinements or risks within the modelling that the you may wish to consider when applying the model to your decision making.
Return on Investment (ROI) for Business Cases
Often having completed a business case proposal you will be asked to assess the actual return on investment likely for all options being considered. We can provide an extensive external assessment of the likely return on investment of all options being considered within your business case.